The roadmap from Paris explicitly states that the Taliban will be
included in Afghanistan’s power structure and given non-elective
positions at different levels
Persistent efforts by multiple western players finally paid off. The
Taliban and the Kabul government met officially in Chantilly, a suburb
of Paris, on December 20 and 21 under the aegis of a French think tank
called the Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique. The Taliban was
represented by senior leaders Shahabuddin Dilawar, former Taliban
ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and Naeem Wardak — both based in Doha.
The government side was represented by the Higher Peace Council chairman
Salahuddin Rabbani. Also participating were Yunus Qanuni, the ideologue
of the opposition National Coalition of Afghanistan led by Abdulla
Abdulla, Ahmad Zia Massoud, brother of the legendary Tajik commander
Ahmad Shah Massoud, as well as representatives of the hardline
Hizb-ul-Islam of Gulbuddin Hikmatyar. In all, there were about 20
delegates participating in the talks.
For an understanding
It is noteworthy that the Kabul delegation included a sprinkling of
non-Pashtun tribes — Massoud, a Tajik, Mohaqqeq, a Hazara leader, and
Faizullah Zaki, an Uzbek. Mr. Massoud said there was a new generation
which did not believe in war and sought an understanding with the
Taliban. The Taliban, for its part, clarified in no uncertain terms that
no negotiations with anyone were involved and that the Taliban “wants
the world community to listen to our goals;” in other words, the Taliban
approached the Paris talks as a platform to air its ideology and
demands.
A few weeks prior to the Chantilly meeting, Kabul had disclosed a ‘Peace
Process Roadmap’ consisting of five steps, which sought to outline a
vision in which, by 2015, the Taliban, the Hizb-e-Islami and other armed
groups will have given up armed opposition. There is reason to believe
that this ‘roadmap 2015’ is a joint Afghan-Pakistan draft, prepared in
close consultation with the United States. The ‘roadmap’ assumes that
all the armed insurgencies will have transformed themselves into
political groups and will actively participate in the political and
constitutional process, including national elections. The first step
focuses on securing Pakistan’s collaboration which would include
Pakistan releasing specific Taliban detainees. Pakistan has already
repatriated several mid-level Taliban prisoners and might release Mullah
Baradar. The second step envisages direct talks with the Taliban, which
Pakistan should facilitate, in Saudi Arabia in the first half of 2013.
Step three calls for ceasefire and transformation of the Taliban into a
political party. The final steps include securing peaceful end to the
conflict during the first half of 2014 and moves to sustain the
long-term stability of Afghanistan and the region. Lip service is paid
in the ‘roadmap’ to the principles of respect for the Afghan
constitution and renunciation of ties with al-Qaeda.
A concession
This was the first time senior Taliban representatives sat down with the
government and other opposition groups. This, in a way, amounts to a
concession by the Taliban which had, thus far, refused to talk to the
Kabul government which it did not regard as legitimate. There was no
joint statement after the Chantilly meeting. In the words of the
sponsoring think tank, the objective was to encourage the Afghans to
“project themselves towards the horizon of 2020.”
Nonetheless, the importance of the talks having taken place should not
be minimised. The Taliban issued a statement after the talks in which it
rejected the present constitution on the ground that it was made “under
the shadows of B52 bombers of the invaders.” “We need a constitution
based on the holy Islam, national interest, past achievements and social
justice,” the Taliban declared. How much should be read into the fact
that the Taliban talked of ‘holy Islam’ and not ‘based on sharia’? It
also referred to ‘social justice;’ does it suggest an implied pledge to
go slow on women’s issues? Turkmenistan offered to host a follow-up
meeting to Chantilly but Kabul refused; did Kabul feel that the meeting
was more meaningful for the Taliban than for the government?
It is obvious that this flurry of activity has only one, perfectly
understandable objective from the American and the West’s perspective:
to provide a respectable screen behind which to implement the withdrawal
from Afghanistan. As for Hamid Karzai, he too would wish to leave
behind some legacy whereby there will be at least an agreement on paper
which, hopefully, will avoid the country’s descent into chaos which many
analysts anticipate post-2014.
Significant
The announcement of the Paris talks signifies several things. Firstly,
it means that the U.S. and NATO have given up, once and for all, the
objective of defeating the Taliban. Secondly, there is more than a tacit
admission that the Afghan National Security Force will be incapable of
ensuring security in the country post-2014,considering that only one out
of 23 Afghan brigades is considered capable of operating on its own.
The ‘green on blue’ attacks have also played their part in this.
Thirdly, it proves that the British are still far ahead of the Americans
in understanding the region. The U.K. called for co-opting the Taliban
in the government years before even Mr. Karzai did, as the only way out
for the country.
Fourthly, and importantly, it must be borne in mind that the West,
especially the Americans, never had any problem with the Taliban. It was
the treatment of women that made the then U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright anti-Taliban. The forceful action after 9/11 was
aimed at al-Qaeda, not the Taliban. Had the Taliban agreed to cut ties
with al-Qaeda then, it would still be ruling in Kabul. The West by and
large would have nothing to worry as and when, not if, the Taliban
obtains a share in the government. The roadmap explicitly states that
the Taliban will be included not only in the state power structure but
will also be given non-elective positions at different levels. This is a
clear reference to governorships in provinces such as Paktia, Paktita
and Khost.
India should watch these developments most warily. There is no reason
for us to rejoice at the possibility of the Taliban becoming a part of
the government. We did support the reconciliation process some time ago,
but it was probably more theoretical at that time when the three ‘red
lines’ were still in place, namely, respecting the constitution,
renunciation of violence and severing ties with al-Qaeda. These red
lines have since been given up and are now projected as objectives to be
considered at the end of the process rather than as preconditions for
talks. It is one thing to support the efforts to achieve stability in
Afghanistan and another to welcome an arrangement which will guarantee
the Taliban a share in power with all the negative consequences that
might follow for us.
Pakistan, the winner
Pakistan has emerged the clear winner. We should have no illusion. Mr.
Karzai has decided to throw in his lot with Pakistan, his ‘brother’.
Pakistan, for all its protestations of not wanting the Taliban returning
to power in Kabul, has been given the pride of place in Mr. Karzai’s
roadmap which confers key role on Islamabad in the whole process.
Pakistan has succeeded in convincing its western interlocutors that
there is a paradigm shift in the political mindset in the country. Once
the Taliban manages to get a share of power in Kabul, it will eventually
endeavour to grab total power. Since it will remain the most cohesive
force, ideologically, politically and militarily, it would be imprudent
to exclude this possibility. In other words, the Taliban might well
achieve around a conference table what it failed to achieve in the
battlefield.
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